市场环境、企业社会责任与基金安全投资转移

当市场环境不好以及不确定性增加时，基金进行安全投资转移。企业积极履行社会责任所形成的声誉资本具有“类保险”作用，在面临负面事件或不确定性环境冲击时能够防止股价大幅下跌和市值损失；基金是否会在市场环境不好时将投资组合转向社会责任绩效更高的股票进行安全投资转移呢？使用2010—2017年开放式基金样本，实证检验了企业社会责任、市场环境与安全投资转移之间的关系。研究发现，在市场环境表现不佳时，基金避险需求增加，倾向将投资组合更多地转向社会责任绩效高的股票进行安全投资转移；进一步研究发现基金和基金经理特征影响基金的安全投资转移行为，净资金流入较少、历史业绩差、经理选股能力差的基金根据企业社会责任进行安全投资转移的程度大。研究还发现，基金的安全投资转移行为对基金业绩和基金收益波动产生了积极影响。     

The rationality of irrationality in times of financial crises

Whilst there are many models discussing the mechanics of financial crises, the notion of predation seems to be insufficiently taken into consideration as one of the explanatory behavioral factors, although it would enrich the understanding of dysfunctional financial markets. This paper provides a stylized model for disruptive and toxic economic behaviors in the context of predatory markets like the subprime crisis of 2007–2009. In this context, we investigate why consumers and sellers buy products they know to be toxic. Conventional economic models contain classical tenets that assume that consumers are rational and search for utility maximization; however, these models cannot straightforwardly explain the behaviors consumers and sellers adopted during times of financial crises, known as “exuberantly irrational”. Hence, we use and expand on a predator-prey perspective that endeavors to capture such behaviors more effectively while showing that four market variables must be considered together over time – consumers, suppliers, toxic products and regulations. Our analysis shows that during the GFC, consumers and lenders as well as regulators embraced whole-heartedly, and contrary to common economic sense, the development and marketing of toxic products. Their behaviors were actually quite rational in the context of a poisoned market. Such observation could assist in drafting regulations.     

Revisiting constraints to smallholder participation in high-value markets: A best-worst scaling approach

We show how policymakers in developing regions can generate richer insights from using the choice experiment method best-worst scaling (BWS) method when ranking policy priorities on an importance scale. More specifically, we adopt BWS to provide an update on constraints that limit the participation of Kenyan horticultural smallholder farmers in modern agricultural value chains. In addition to traditional constraints posed by input market failures and missing institutions, we considered constraints such as trust and familiarity with buyers shown by recent empirical studies to inform smallholders’ market choices. Ascertaining the relevance of these constraints highlights our contribution to the existing literature. We find that farmers consistently rate access to high-quality inputs as their main constraint followed by concerns about access to credit, the high cost of meeting food standards, missing cooperatives, and exploitative intermediaries. Respondents considered insufficient labor, small farmlands, and weak tenure rights as the least important constraints. Age, location, gender, household income, and education influence the relative importance various segments of smallholders place on these constraints. For example, constraints are economic rather than personal for low-income farmers. Counterintuitively, rural smallholders are less likely to perceive poor transportation network as a constraint. Smallholders’ distrust of buyers they interact with is informed by their location and income. In designing intervention initiatives, policies that focus on segments of smallholders are needed for improving smallholder participation in modern agricultural value chains.     

农地发展权流出、资本回流与区域经济增长*——基于重庆市的实证研究

[目的]以重庆市为研究区域,以农地发展权资本化的地票指标为研究对象,从理论和实证层面探讨农地发展权交易与资本要素的城乡互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响,为进一步优化农地发展权交易政策、促进区域均衡发展提供相关建议。[方法]基于2008—2017年城乡统筹改革试验区重庆市地票指标交易的面板数据,运用要素禀赋理论和差分GMM模型从理论和实证层面分析农地发展权流出区土地与资本要素的互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响。[结果]基于区域间资源禀赋的差异及要素相对价格的分化,在市场机制作用下,农地发展权指标将以配置效率优化为导向在不同区域间自由流动。[结论]短期内,由于资本约束,流出农地发展权的区域其经济增长会受到抑制;而当农地发展权指标资本化后,流出区获得了较为稀缺的货币资本,农地发展权流出将显著促进地方经济增长;同时,在研究时期内,由于农地发展权市场交易机制的构建,重庆市地方经济增长存在显著的收敛效应,区域间经济发展差距将会逐步缩小。     

资本要素市场化改革、对外直接投资与技术创新绩效

对外直接投资对母国产业的技术创新具有反哺促进效应,但同时受资本要素市场扭曲的调节作用影响。本文运用2003~2016年的面板数据,设定双因素基准模型并进行东、中、西部地区分样本回归以检验资本要素市场扭曲对OFDI的技术创新的调节作用。结果发现:OFDI通过逆向技术溢出促进了母国的企业技术创新绩效。同时,资本要素市场扭曲抑制了OFDI反哺技术创新绩效的正向作用,且资本要素市场扭曲对OFDI的技术创新的调节效应存在地区差异性。因此,深化要素市场化改革,调整对外直接投资结构和优化营商环境,是实现OFDI协调发展以推动技术创新绩效提升的有效途径。     

产业集聚、市场集中对区域创新能力的作用——基于京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业的比较

产业集聚和市场集中是影响区域创新能力的重要因素。本文考察了京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业产业集聚与市场集中对区域技术创新能力的作用。实证分析结果表明：两大经济圈制造业集聚与市场集中均在一定程度上促进了区域创新能力的提升，但由于两大区域体制机制条件、创新环境、产业组织形态等不同，制造业产业集聚影响区域技术创新的程度、特征与路径也存在一定差别。两大经济圈应采取差异化集群发展方式，加快推进制造业集群升级，特别是应抢抓第四次工业革命发展机遇，提升制造业智能化水平，提升区域创新能力水平。     

地方政府土地财政依赖一定会推高城市一级土地市场化水平吗? ——基于2003—2015年中国省级面板数据的检验

研究目的：在深入分析地方政府土地财政依赖对城市一级土地市场作用机理的基础上，利用2003—2015年中国31个省（市、区）（不包括港澳台地区）的面板数据进行计量检验，测定地方政府土地财政依赖度对城市一级土地市场化率的影响程度。研究方法：计量经济分析方法。研究结果：为弥补地方政府土地财政缺口的刚性需求，地方政府领导人会权变地选择一级土地市场上各类用地的出让方式和出让量。土地财政依赖度与城市一级土地市场化率之间存在倒U型关系。研究结论：当土地财政依赖度与一级土地市场化率均较低时，地方政府会在一级土地市场上出让土地时适当增加“招拍挂”的比例，从而在提高土地财政依赖度的同时提升一级土地市场化率；当土地财政依赖度较高但一级土地市场化率较低时，地方政府会增加一级土地市场上“招拍挂”的比例，在降低土地财政依赖程度的同时提升一级土地市场化率。     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing,China

Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers’ willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries.     

Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model

This paper introduces a combination of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects in order to build superior extensions of the GARCH-MIDAS model for modeling and forecasting the stock volatility. Our in-sample results clearly verify that extreme shocks have a significant impact on the stock volatility and that the volatility can be influenced more by the asymmetry effect than by the extreme volatility effect in both the long and short term. Out-of-sample results with several robustness checks demonstrate that our proposed models can achieve better performances in forecasting the volatility. Furthermore, the improvement in predictive ability is attributed more strongly to the introduction of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects for the short-term volatility component.